Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons

This paper investigates the performance of IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) in closer to actual are generally larger, more volatile, negative; (ii) on average, right direction, becoming progressively responsive error gap as get year; (iii) systemic economies relevant for all groups; (iv) Consensus Forecast highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring correlated with Forecasts compared spring-to-fall revisions; (vi) vintages, a given time horizon not autocorrelated; within tend be positively correlated, suggesting perception persistent short-term shocks.